Part 1
The 2022 Hanford Lifecycle Scope, Schedule, and Cost Report (Lifecycle Report) is the 10th iteration of a tool developed by the US Department of Energy (USDOE) to provide a snapshot of low and high-range cost and time estimates, and a preview of the timeline for long-term management of the waste left in place once Hanford cleanup is “complete.” The report states that its purpose is for preparing budget requests and informational briefings.
The 2022 report shows cleanup at the low-range will cost $300 billion and end in 2078, and at the high-range will cost $640 billion and end in 2087. Long-term monitoring is estimated through 2095, with the report stating the assumption that monitoring will continue far beyond that date.
However, this report is a mere snapshot in time showing what cleanup work USDOE is conducting today and what work they plan to do later. The foundational elements of the report (scope, schedule, and cost) are constantly changing and evolving, which makes it difficult to draw overarching conclusions.
USDOE has moved the report's release from annually to every three years, and is meant to provide an update on how Hanford cleanup is advancing. The Lifecycle Report addresses what activities comprise Hanford cleanup, the time it will take to complete cleanup, and the estimated cost of cleanup.
Map of Hanford Site, Photo credit: Columbia Riverkeeper
Scope
The report is divided into three major categories: River Corridor, Central Plateau, and Tank Waste cleanup. A fourth category, Mission Support, covers everything that is necessary to make sure the cleanup activities run smoothly (such as roads, security, water, maintenance, etc.) and includes stewardship of the site after cleanup activities are finished.
Each of the three cleanup categories encompass specific activities.
River Corridor cleanup covers cleanup of sites and facilities along the Columbia River, cocooning reactors in interim safe storage, and eventually demolishing and removing the reactors after sufficient time has passed.
Central Plateau cleanup covers the treatment, storage, and disposal of Hanford Site waste streams and offsite wastes; groundwater remediation; and cleanup of sites and facilities such as the canyons and Fast Flux Test Facility.
Tank Waste cleanup encompasses the retrieval, pretreatment, and immobilization of tank waste; closure of single-shell and double-shell storage tanks; construction of the Waste Treatment Plant; and activities required to support the treatment of tank wastes.
The three cleanup categories are broken down further to show the cost and schedule for specific projects, such as the amount of money and years it will take to clean up the Waste Encapsulation Storage Facility.
Schedule
The report declares the active cleanup schedule is from fiscal year (FY) 2022 to FY 2078. USDOE expects long-term stewardship and monitoring of the site to continue until FY 2095. The federal government plans to have a presence at Hanford past FY 2095. However, the dates provided in the Lifecycle Report are misleading. Cleanup is already off schedule and at this rate we estimate it will take longer than expected.
Hanford Site Remaining Cleanup Schedule, Photo Credit: 2022 Hanford Lifecycle Scope, Schedule, and Cost Report
Low-Range and High-Range Cleanup Cost Estimates, Photo Credit: 2022 Hanford Lifecycle Scope, Schedule, and Cost Report
Cost
Hanford cleanup is pricey and involves a lot of uncertainty. According to the Lifecycle Report, cleanup will cost from $300.2 to $640.6 billion. The reason for the huge cost range is due to different scenarios about what may or may not happen with the cleanup scope and schedule. The report defines some of the assumptions used to estimate the cost range for various cleanup activities.
Let's start by considering tank waste cleanup, which involves the most uncertainty of any cleanup project at Hanford. It requires the highest amount of spending of all the cleanup activities—$219.2 to $527.4 billion. USDOE bases the low-range and high-range cost estimates for tank waste cleanup on various assumptions and uncertainties.
For example, one of the assumptions that forms the basis for the low-range estimate is that the Waste Treatment Plant will be operable for as long as necessary and upgrades will happen as needed to keep it operating, possibly beyond the 40-year design life. In contrast, one of the assumptions of the high-range cost estimate is that USDOE will have to partially or completely replace the Waste Treatment Plant at significant cost if tank waste treatment takes longer than expected. Consider the low-range estimate the best-case scenario for cleanup and the high-range estimate the possible worst-case scenario.
Continue reading on to Part 2, where we'll cover some limitations of the Lifecycle Report and Hanford Challenge's concerns about how the report is used by USDOE.
This material is funded through a Public Participation Grant from the Washington State Department of Ecology. The content was reviewed for grant consistency, but is not necessarily endorsed by the agency.